The growth of the 905 is actually happening in the 519 and 705- Part II

A continuation of today’s piece: The growth of the 905 is actually happening in the 519 and 705. This has consequences.

TL;DR version: The growth rate of 905 Toronto has cratered, due to an outmigration of residents. Eastern, Southwestern and Central Ontario have seen spikes in population growth rates since 2015, primarily driven by young families in search of affordable real estate.

When making population forecasts, the Ontario government groups the province’s 49 Census Divisions into six groups. We’ll adopt their groupings, as our long list of Census Divisions were a little unwieldy.

A few notes:

• The only change I’ll make to this list is I’ll separate out the city of Toronto (416 Toronto) from the rest of the GTA (905 Toronto). That will give us 7 groups rather than 6.
• Our 905 Toronto group will be interesting to examine, as it will include Peel and York, which were experiencing population outflow to the rest of Ontario, with Halton and Durham, which were experiencing population inflow from the rest of the province. Not sure which effect will dominate.
• I’m not a fan of any definition of Southwestern Ontario that doesn’t include Guelph and Kitchener, but from a population dynamics perspective, this grouping makes sense. You have Toronto, and the 4 CDs that are adjacent to Toronto. Then you have a ring of census divisions, which border those 905 Toronto CDs, with the “Southwestern Ontario” CDs all being at least a 90 minute drive away from the CN Tower.

We can then examine population dynamics over time, using the data from Statcan 17–10–0140–01, which spans the period 2006/07 to 2017/18.

We’ll examine growth, over time, from 5 sources:

• Natural (Births-Deaths)
• Net International Permanent Immigration
• Net International Non-Permanent Residents
• Net Interprovincial Migration (from other provinces to Ontario)
• Net Intraprovincial Migration (within Ontario).

I’ve excluded the two Northern groupings from this analysis, as the net figures were pretty much zero across the board. They’re worth looking at in the future.

Natural Population Increase

With our aging population, we’re seeing a reduction in natural population growth, with almost no natural population growth outside of the GTA.

Net International Immigration Growth

I have no idea what’s causing the fluctuations in 416 Toronto. Most net migration to Ontario occurs in the GTA, though there has been an uptick in Central, East, and Southwest since 2015 and a sharp decline in 905 Toronto.

Net Non-Permanent Residents Growth

Again, not sure what’s going on with the data for 416 Toronto. East and Southwest are seeing significant growth, likely from international students. Windsor, in particular, has seen an influx of international students.

Net Interprovincial Growth

It’s likely not a coincidence that these numbers are the inverse of oil prices; much of the migration happens between Ontario and Alberta. The vast majority of growth in East are people moving to Ottawa from other provinces.

Net Intraprovincial Growth

This is the massive change I’ve been talking about. Back in 2006/2007, 905 Toronto was gaining 30,000 people per year from the rest of the province each year, now it is shedding 20,000. In total, 50,000 people move from 416/905 Toronto each year to other parts of the province, split between Central (30,000), East (10,000) and Southwest (10,000).

And recall from our earlier piece, this isn’t primarily driven by retirees; the primary group migrating is young families.

Summary

Put together, here’s the population increase from international migration (both temporary and permanent):

And here’s the population growth from natural factors and within Canada migration:

Note that the two slowest growing regions on this metric are 416 and 905 Toronto.

Put both international and domestic together and they show a steep decline in the growth rate of the 905 and a rise in Central, East and Southwest. (Plus the odd spike in the 416 I don’t fully understand).