Ontarians on the Move #3 — Peel

PREVIOUS ENTRY: Ontarians on the Move #2 — York.

TL;DR version: Like Toronto, Peel is losing high numbers of residents to other parts of the province. The most common age for someone to leave the Peel for elsewhere in the province is 27.

Let’s take a look at the Census Divisions near the City of Toronto:

In Part 1, we saw that there was an exodus of kids and 30 somethings out of the City of Toronto. In Part 2, we saw that there was a small inflow into the York region, but not large enough to completely offset Toronto’s loss. Of course, those families don’t necessarily have to move North — they could move west to Peel or east to Durham. So we’ll take a look at Peel in this part, and Durham in the next.

Peel has three parts — Mississauga, Brampton and Caledon:

Between July 1, 2018 and July 1, 2019, Peel grew at a much faster rate, in percentage terms, than either the City of Toronto or the York Region. This was primarily due to a spike in the number of people living in Brampton:

Despite Peel’s population being half of Toronto’s, they both gained roughly 45,000 people between 2018 and 2019. Like Toronto, Peel saw significant net outflows of population to other parts of the province, losing 20,000 people. Like Toronto, this was more than made up for with immigration (both permanent and temporary):

Let’s start by examining the net international numbers. The shape of the age profiles looks similar to Toronto, though with a higher proportion of younger children. Not sure why that is — it’s worth looking into. Once again, we see the vast majority of non-permanent immigration occurring in college-aged individuals:

The “within Canada” migration numbers are… interesting. Not at all what I expected. We do see a reasonable high number of young children migrating to other parts of Ontario. We also see an absolutely massive level of outmigration occurring by people in their late 20s (it peaks at age 27). If anyone has any idea what’s going on here, please drop me a line.

I can’t get over how different the “net intraprovincial” numbers are for Toronto, York and Peel. Here they all are on the same graph:

Add them all together, and we get this:

(This replaces an earlier chart, which contained a math error, which offset the Peel numbers by a year.)

We can also express the numbers in table form:

This also replaces an earlier version that contained a math error

That’s a whole lot of young families moving out of Toronto+Peel+York. The story will change somewhat, though, when we add Durham.

If we look at net migration to Peel by age, for both domestic and international, we get the following:

Like with York and Toronto, we see a high number of 20 and 30-somethings, due to immigration and international students.

Of the 80,000 or so net migrants (both domestic and international) to Toronto+Peel+York between 2018 and 2019, only 5% of them are under the age of 14.

Next, we’ll add Durham into the mix, which will give us Toronto plus every Census District that borders Toronto.

COMING SOON: Ontarians on the Move #4 — Durham.