Ontarians on the Move, 2021 Edition #17 — Waiting for Seniors to “Age Out” of their homes is not a solution to Toronto’s family housing crisis.

Source: Toronto Star.
  1. They may move out of the city of Toronto entirely.
  2. All residents of the home may pass away.
  3. They may move to smaller housing forms, long-term care facilities, or other non-family sized homes within the city of Toronto.

Population Changes by Age in the City of Toronto

By examining changes in Toronto’s population by age over time, we can get an idea of how likely it is for a current Toronto resident to still be in the city a few years later.

Source: Statistics Canada.
Source: Statistics Canada.
Source: Census 2016.
Source: Right-Sizing Housing and Generational Turnover

Final Thoughts

When it comes to the City of Toronto, and family-sized homes getting ‘freed up’ due to population aging, there are three basic trends:

  1. Net out-migration of older residents from the City of Toronto is relatively modest and primarily happens between the ages of 55 and 69. If you’re still in Toronto at age 70, chances are you are not leaving.
  2. There is relatively little movement of seniors out of non-apartments in the City of Toronto until they reach the age of 85 or older.
  3. As such, mortality, not out-migration or movement into other housing forms determines housing supply. Toronto residents show a strong affinity for aging in place.

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Mike Moffatt

Mike Moffatt

Senior Director, Smart Prosperity. Assistant Prof, Ivey Business School. Exhausted but happy Dad of 2 wonderful kids with autism. I used to do other stuff.