Ontarians on the Move, 2021 Edition #16 — Housing demand and the growth in the number of households.

Source: Number of Households by Household Type: 1976–2036. I’m not sure how they’re defining “head of the household” — I suspect it’s the age of the oldest member of the household.
Source: Number of Households by Household Type: 1976–2036
Source: Household Formation and the Housing Stock
Source: Number of Households by Household Type: 1976–2036 and Population estimates, July 1, by economic region, 2016 boundaries

Comparing Housing Completions to the Growth in the Number of Households

Every household needs a place to call home, so we should expect that growth in the number of households should track closely to the growth in the number of homes. A December 2016 PBO report, Household Formation and the Housing Stock finds that historically, across Canada, this holds true:

Source: Household Formation and the Housing Stock
  1. Household formation causes housing completions: Communities build homes to meet the growing number of families.
  2. Housing completion causes household formation: People need somewhere to live if they are to start a household. A lack of homes causes (forces) younger people to live with their parents or several roomates, suppressing household formation.
  3. Housing completion causes household attraction and retention: All else being equal, a limited supply of housing will lead to households leaving (and being forced elsewhere), and a growing supply of homes will lead to households moving in from other jurisdictions.
Source: Number of Households by Household Type: 1976–2036, Population estimates, July 1, by economic region, 2016 boundaries and CMHC housing completions data. For housing completions, the yearly totals were taken from July 1 to June 30 for any given year, to match the time periods for population growth.
Source: Number of Households by Household Type: 1976–2036, Population estimates, July 1, by economic region, 2016 boundaries and CMHC housing completions data. For housing completions, the yearly totals were taken from July 1 to June 30 for any given year, to match the time periods for population growth.
Source: Number of Households by Household Type: 1976–2036, Population estimates, July 1, by economic region, 2016 boundaries and CMHC housing completions data. For housing completions, the yearly totals were taken from July 1 to June 30 for any given year, to match the time periods for population growth.
  • Prices to rise in the GTA.
  • Families to move out of the GTA, thanks to drive until you qualify.
  • Prices to rise in other communities thanks to an influx of people who drove until they qualified.
  • Families to move out of those home communities to even further afield communities due to the musical chairs effect.
  • The environmental impact of families having to move to a different community than the one they work in.
  • Young families having less disposable income, due to higher monthly housing costs and the need to save up large downpayments.

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Mike Moffatt

Mike Moffatt

Senior Director, Smart Prosperity. Assistant Prof, Ivey Business School. Exhausted but happy Dad of 2 wonderful kids with autism. I used to do other stuff.