Ontarians on the Move #0 — What Parts of Ontario Are Growing… and Why?

  1. Births
  2. Deaths
  3. Immigration (from other countries)
  4. Net non-permanent residents (people from abroad locating to a place temporarily, such as students or temporary foreign workers. Naturally, a portion of these will one day become permanent residents.)
  5. Emigration (to other countries)
  6. Net interprovincial migration (people moving to Toronto from other provinces minus people moving from Toronto to other provinces)
  7. Net intraprovincial migration (people moving to Toronto from other parts of Ontario minus people moving from Toronto to other parts of the province)

Total Population Increase

Births

Deaths

Immigration

Net Non-Permanent

Emigration

Net Interprovincial

Net Intraprovincial

  1. Relative to 2006–07, we see a big increase in the population growth rates of cottage country (Kawartha Lakes) and urban SW Ontario (Middlesex, Oxford, Woodstock, Essex). And what I think of as tobacco country (Haldimand-Norfolk), because why not?
  2. Ontario’s population is growing more rapidly than it was in 2006–07. More than half of this due to a big increase in the growth rate of non-permanent residents, the rest is due to interprovincial migration (we aren’t losing people to Alberta like we were during the oil boom). Those two factors explain almost all of the change in the growth rate; very little of it is due to immigration.
  3. There’s been a small decline in births and a small increase in deaths, which you would expect with Ontario’s aging population. The increase in deaths is primarily in smaller, more rural CDs.
  4. The city of Toronto is experiencing a decline in their population growth rates due to immigration. I would not have expected this.
  5. Huge increase in growth rates due to net non-permanent residents, with “college towns” like Waterloo and London leading the way.
  6. The Windsor area lost a ton of workers to Alberta during the simultaneous oil boom and manufacturing employment decline. This is no longer occurring.
  7. Net intraprovincial tells an important story: Peel, Durham, Halton and York are losing their appeal for families looking for real estate they can afford. They are being replaced by Oxford, Simcoe and others. The “drive until you qualify” folks are having to drive a whole lot further than they used to.
  8. The booming growth of cottage country due to intraprovincial migration is a relatively new phenomenon; we didn’t see it nearly as much in 2006–07.

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Senior Director, Smart Prosperity. Assistant Prof, Ivey Business School. Exhausted but happy Dad of 2 wonderful kids with autism. I used to do other stuff.

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Mike Moffatt

Mike Moffatt

Senior Director, Smart Prosperity. Assistant Prof, Ivey Business School. Exhausted but happy Dad of 2 wonderful kids with autism. I used to do other stuff.

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