Ontarians on the Move #0.75–13 Years of Growth in Ontario Cities

PREVIOUS ENTRY: Ontarians on the Move #0.5 — It’s Kids, not Seniors, on the Move.

Yes, it’s another prequel!

TL;DR version: Over the past 13 years, Toronto and Peel have lost, on net, nearly 500,000 residents who have moved to other parts of Ontario.

I thought it would be interesting to combine 13 years worth of population growth data by census division, to see the total trends. Boy, was I right. This figure is staggering — Toronto and Peel CDs, combined, have shed nearly 500,000 residents to the rest of the province over the last 13 years (the start of the data series).

Lets examine the data piece by piece.

Population growth through natural increases

Toronto is about 6% larger than it otherwise would be due to ‘natural’ increases (births minus deaths), holding all else constant. For about half of Ontario CDs, we see that deaths have exceeded births. These are typically smaller, more rural CDs.

Population growth through net permanent immigration

Peel and Toronto are 20% larger than they would otherwise be (holding all else constant) thanks to immigration from 2006–2019, and York is over 10% larger.

Population growth through net non-permanent residents growth

The growth of non-permanent residents is primarily due to international students and temporary foreign workers, which explains why the top of this list is dominated by college towns and agricultural communities.

Population growth through net interprovincial migration

Outside of the Ottawa area, there is very little population growth due to people moving to Ontario from other provinces. In fact, the province as a whole lost (on net) population to the rest of Canada.

Population growth through net intraprovincial migration

Toronto is over 10% smaller than it otherwise would be, thanks to people moving (on net) to other parts of the province. Many other communities, particularly in cottage country, are 10% or more larger than they otherwise would be, due to that migration.

That’s it for this piece… on to Toronto!

NEXT IN THE SERIES: Ontarians on the Move #1 — Toronto.