How has the pandemic changed population dynamics — #1: Canada-wide view

  • These are estimates
  • The data runs from July 1 to June 30. So the data I have labelled ‘2021’ represents the change from July 1, 2020 to June 30, 2021.

Births and Deaths

Plotting a decade’s worth of data, we see that births are down and deaths are up. We shouldn’t fully ascribe those changes to the pandemic, as they are at least somewhat in line with pre-pandemic trends. That said, the pandemic has almost certainly played a contributing, if partial, role. Note that the data for 2020 covers the period from July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2020, so is mostly (though not wholly) a pre-pandemic period.

International Migration

First, we’ll consider net non-permanent residents. In the piece Ontario’s boom in non-permanent residents starts at colleges and universities, I showed how the vast majority of Ontario’s non-permanent residents are either international students enrolled in higher-education, international students who have graduated and are staying in Canada under the post-graduation work permit program, and their families:

  • Increased deaths
  • Decreased births
  • A reduction in both the number of persons coming to Canada, and the number of persons leaving Canada.

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Mike Moffatt

Mike Moffatt

Senior Director, Smart Prosperity. Assistant Prof, Ivey Business School. Exhausted but happy Dad of 2 wonderful kids with autism. I used to do other stuff.