Feb. 25 Update: What we know and what we don’t about the new Ontario Autism Program.

I really wish I had more to add to this update. We’re now down to 35 days, and instead of answering questions, the government is robotically sticking to the same talking point:

Through the government’s recent changes to the OAP, families will receive childhood budgets so they can purchase the eligible services they value most from providers of their choice on a fee-for-service basis. Families will be able to do this each year without interruption until their child turns 18. This reform will help clear the current 23,000 children off of the wait list within the next 18 months and allow more children to access autism supports earlier. It will also speed up the diagnostic process so that families can make informed decisions quickly. This plan will be implemented on April 1.

That was literally the Minister’s response to a Global News piece by Travis Dhanraj on the Ministry “pausing contact with families”. Highly recommend the article. Later in the day Dhanraj tweeted out a copy of the speaking points that the Ministry gave service providers:

The Minister is calling any speculation to why her Ministry hit pause a “conspiracy theory”.

If we leave the question of motive aside, we can all roughly agree on the series of events: sometime in September (or earlier) the Ministry told service providers not to allow any new kids to get therapy. Furthermore, she instructed those service providers to keep families in the dark about what was going on. This was an awful thing to do to parents; had we known there was no chance for getting help for our kids, we could have figured out alternative arrangements. Instead we were lied to.

In case you missed it, Craig Needles interviewed Louis Busch regarding the “pause” on treating kids. This was an absolutely phenomenal interview — I learned more here than I have anywhere else. Must listen if you 15 minutes to spare. (And if you don’t, make 15 minutes. It’s that good)

I wish I had more updates for you. Sadly we seem to live in the province where policy is made up and the facts don’t matter.

No changes to the list below.

New Program

Issue 1: Maximum Per Year Funding

What we know

• The maximum funding is $20,000/yr for kids aged 2–5 (4 years) and $5,000 for kids 6–17 (12 years).
• This is not nearly enough money to purchase ABA, which costs around $80,000/yr.
• Parents cannot use the money to purchase OT or speech therapy but can use the money to purchase iPads.

What we don’t know

• What services and supports families will be able to purchase (other than what is listed above). We are told this will be released sometime in April 2019, which is after the new program is live!
• How families pay for services (do they pay out of pocket, then submit receipts? A receipts model would be highly problematic, as it would require families to have significant up-front cash. Does the money go direct to providers?) Sarah Jones was able to get some information on this from Amy Fee, but we don’t know if this is official government policy.
• What happens the first year a child is diagnosed. If a child is diagnosed at age 3.5, do they have to wait until their next birthday to receive funding? Do they get the full amount for a 3-year-old? Is the funding pro-rated? (So they’d receive half the amount they would for a full year?)
• Can families roll-over unused budget into following years, or is it “use it or lose it”?

Issue 2: Means-Testing

What we know

• Almost nothing. We thought we knew when the clawbacks start (at an income level of $55,000/yr), but yesterday in Question Period, it was indicated that families earning $55,000/yr would not receive the full amount. Details here, along with a guess on how the funding might work. (Again, noting that the cost of ABA is around $80,000/yr and that $55,000/yr is less than some dual-earner minimum-wage families earn).
• We know the government is defining income, for means-testing purposes, as Line 236 on your tax return (which is standard for these types of programs), which is income after Line 207 through 235 deductions (including child care expenses and RSP contributions) have been applied. So this is “pre-tax” income, but net of some deductions.

What we don’t know

• Anything about means-testing, including the formula.
• We also still don’t know if the funding works differently for single-earner vs. dual-earner families, or if the program has a built-in “marriage penalty”. (Or put differently, will this program pay families to get divorced).
• How the funding and means-testing works for families with multiple children on the spectrum. My interpretation of what the government has released is that it is not affected by the number of children in a family. That is, if you have one 11-year-old with a “Childhood Budget” of $2750, each child would receive a budget of $2750 if you instead had 11-year-old twins on the spectrum. It would be helpful to have this confirmed, though.
• If families have a substantial change in their financial situation (say a job-lost), can they be re-assessed to have their funding reflect their new income level? What is the process for doing so?

Issue 3: Going from Diagnosis to Funding

We know next to nothing about how children will transition from being diagnosed to receiving funding when the new program is fully implemented.

What we don’t know

• How long will it take for families to receive funding after a child is diagnosed? Will it be immediate? Will they have to wait a certain amount of time (say 6 weeks)? Or wait until a certain date (say April 1?)
• How does funding “renew”. Let’s suppose a 5-year old child starts to receive funding on October 13, 2021. She turns 6 on November 27, 2021. Does her initial pot of funding extend to her birthday (November 27, 2021)? end of the year (December 31, 2021)?, end of fiscal year (March 31, 2022)?, a full year (October 12, 2022?)? How does the fact she is going from a 5-year old (younger child) to a 6-year old (older child) during that year affect funding?

Issue 4: Data Needed to Forecast Costs

Outside analysts (like yours truly) would like to be able to estimate how much the government will be spending on this new program. In order to do that, we need to know how the means-testing works. There’s also a number of other important pieces of information.

What we don’t know

• Forecasted utilization rates for spending.
• How many kids are projected to use the program, along with their ages.

Issue 5: Government’s Forecasts of Costs

Based on the little information we have, it looks like the government is cutting yearly funding in the range of $50–100M, but honestly, who knows? We would like the government to tell taxpayers and parents what this new program costs, and whether it is less than what the old program would have cost.

What we know

• Between fiscal years 2011–12 and 2015–16, the government spent $180–190M each year. (Data here).
• In fiscal year 2016–17 they spent $254,633,529
• In fiscal year 2017–18 they spent $317,801,400
• The number $321 million, which the government has repeated both in Question Period and on Twitter. What we don’t know is what fiscal year this represents. Note that this would be a slight nominal increase from 2017–18, it would be a real (after inflation) decrease in expenditure, no matter which fiscal year it is for. (A brief editorial: For as long as I can remember on the autism file, parties have always been talking about “more” funding, and throwing around numbers… $32 million.. $65 million… $100 million, without telling us what this is more than. “More” is a comparative word, so it only makes sense if it is referencing (either implicitly or explicitly) some other value. What are you using as your baseline? Why can’t you say, “we’re going to spend $X more in 2019 than was initially budgeted for, for a total spend of $Y in 2019” or whatever. Why must voters be left in the dark? And all the parties are guilty of it.)

What we don’t know

• What the government will spend in fiscal year 2018–19 (Which ends Mar. 31, 2019)
• What the government would have spent in fiscal years 2019–20, 2020–21 and 2021–22 had there been no changes to the program.
• What the government will spend in fiscal years 2019–20, 2020–21 and 2021–22 under this new program.

Transition from Old Program to New One

Here’s what we know and what we don’t about the transition from the old program to the new one.

What we know

• The transition starts on April 1, 2019
• The transition is expected to last 18 months (that is, until Sept. 30, 2020)
• In advance of this new plan, in 2018 the government stopped providing therapy to children on the waiting list, without telling parents, denying the kids on the top of the waiting list with the therapy they need. Their motives for doing so are in dispute.

What we don’t know

• What changes were made to the OAP in fiscal year 2018–19, by this government (or the previous one), to prepare for this transition. There were rumours going around the community for some time that the Ontario government was not allowing service providers to start treating kids on the waiting list. Those rumours turned out to be true. What else has the government done to the program?
• For children currently receiving funding, how much funding will they receive upon renewal? Will it be the existing amount? The amount from the new funding formula? Something else? Nothing?
• For children currently on the waiting list, how long will it take them to receive funding? What does the process look like? Will they all have to wait until October 1, 2020?
• For children diagnosed during this period, will they receive their funding before October 1, 2020? On Oct. 1? Or will they have to wait a full 18 months? (So a child diagnosed on February 20, 2020 would need to wait until August 20, 2021)
• Will the government continue to spend the same amount of money on services during this period? Or will they be saving money by reducing funding to kids currently receiving treatment while not extending new funding to kids on the waiting list? (as asked earlier)

I’m not expecting to learn much over the weekend, but time will tell.

List of Resources

From the Ontario Government

• Program details from the Ministry of Children, Community and Social Services
• Feb. 6 Press Release: Helping Families by Improving Access to Autism Services
• Feb. 6 Press Release: Ontario Takes Decisive Action to Help More Families with Autism
• Feb. 6 Press Release: Electronic Press Kit Now Available: Ontario Takes Decisive Action to Help More Families with Autism
• Feb. 7 Press Release: New Ontario Autism Program Draws Support From Across the Province. (No press releases since then)