Nineteenth in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. Previous piece: Ontarians on the Move, 2021 Edition #18 — Ontario’s pre-pandemic housing shortage was a uniquely Ontario problem.

TL;DR version: By examining “primary home maintainer” (PHM) ratios, we see that Ontario and British Columbia have far fewer homes, of all forms, than their population sizes and demographics would predict. …


Eighteenth in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. Previous piece: Ontarians on the Move, 2021 Edition #17 — Waiting for Seniors to “Age Out” of their homes is not a solution to Toronto’s family housing crisis.

TL;DR version: Between 2016 and 2020, Ontario’s population and number of households boomed, but homebuilding (of all forms) did not, leaving the province short roughly 100,000 homes in just four years. This was a near-uniquely Ontario phenomenon, as homebuilding in British Columbia, Alberta, and Quebec kept up with population growth.

One…


Seventeenth in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. Previous piece: Ontarians on the Move, 2021 Edition #16 — Housing demand and the growth in the number of households.

TL;DR version: An oft-cited solution to the City of Toronto’s lack of family-friendly housing is that family-sized homes will “free up” as the population ages. The data tells a different story: Seniors rarely move out of the City of Toronto, they rarely transition into other housing forms, and show a strong preference towards “aging in place”. Turnover of family-sized…


Sixteenth in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. Previous piece: Ontarians on the Move, 2021 Edition #15 — New Ministry of Finance Population Projections

TL;DR version: While population growth is important, ultimately it is the growth in the number of households that ultimately determines the demand for housing. My estimate is that over the past four years we should have built an additional 100,000 homes to keep up with new household formation.

Much of the Ontarians on the Move series has looked at the relationship between population…


Fifteenth in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. Previous piece: Ontarians on the Move, 2021 Edition #14 — Over the Next 30 Years, the City of Toronto Should Be Planning to Add 2 Million Residents, not 700,000.

TL;DR version: Ontario’s newly released population projections show Ontario’s population growing up to as much as 22.3 million by Canada Day, 2046. However, any examination of the population projections from February 2018 illustrates how quickly projections can become dated.

Last week Ontario’s Ministry of Finance released their population projections for…


Fourteenth in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. Previous piece: Ontarians on the Move, 2021 Edition. #13 — Where are Ontario’s International Students Living?

TL;DR version: Ontario’s official plan seeks to grow the City of Toronto’s population by 700,000 between now and 2051. This plan also implicitly calls for 1–1.5 million residents, on net, to leave the City and move to other parts of the province. This is a plan for sprawl and the eventual paving over of the Greenbelt.

Toronto’s planning to add 700,000 new residents…


Thirteenth in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. Previous piece: #12 — Where are Ontario’s Non-Permanent Residents Living?

TL;DR version: Ontario’s spike in non-permanent residents is primarily caused by growth in the number of international students. This leads to the question: Where are they living? Turns out, that’s a harder question to answer than you may think, due to Canada’s lack of seriousness when it comes to international migration data. But what we do know is there’s almost certainly over 100,000 living in the GTA alone.

The…


Twelfth in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. Previous piece: #11 — Ontario’s boom in non-permanent residents starts at colleges and universites.

TL;DR version: Ontario’s population of non-permanent residents has gone up by over 250,000 in just four years. However, they have been unequally distributed across the province. While the majority of new non-permanent residents are located in the GTA, London, Windsor and the Niagara Region are also popular destinations.

In the previous installment of this series, I examined the rapid growth of Ontario’s non-permanent resident population…


Eleventh in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. Previous piece: #10 — The pre-pandemic correlation between home price increases and population growth in Southern Ontario.

TL;DR version: Ontario’s surging population growth since 2015 has been driven primarily by a big increase in the number of non-permanent residents. …


Yes, it’s another Basic Income piece! *sigh*

TL;DR: Want to hobble together a Basic Income out of existing federal income supports, but don’t want to touch targeted programs for disabilities or medical expenses? Turns out, there’s not much left, beyond the Basic Personal Amount and the GST credit. But that is a starting point, and those could be reformed. In short, the notion that there are a plethora of different federal cash supports is a myth.

In response to yesterday’s piece on how the PBO’s Basic Income model would impoverish single mothers, two different parliamentarians reached out to me with…

Mike Moffatt

Senior Director, Smart Prosperity. Assistant Prof, Ivey Business School. Exhausted but happy Dad of 2 wonderful kids with autism. I used to do other stuff.

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