May 18My Opening Remarks on the Housing Crisis, to the Standing Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with DisabilitiesThank you for having me here today — my name is Mike Moffatt. I am the Senior Director of the Smart Prosperity Institute, a clean economy think-tank housed at the University of Ottawa. Over the past five years, home prices have doubled in Halifax, Kitchener-Waterloo, and on Vancouver Island. They…4 min read
May 11Ontario NDP, Liberals, and Tories are proposing ODSP rates that are well under the poverty line, and less than those under Mike Harris. There is still time to fix this.As always, here is the TL;DR: TL; DR The Ontario NDP, Liberals, and Tories are proposing Ontario Disability Support Program payment levels that are well below the poverty line, as well as below those under Mike Harris, adjusted for inflation. The Ontario Green Party, on the other hand, is proposing…5 min read
Apr 20Supply, Demand, and Southern Ontario’s Housing MarketAs always, here is the TL;DR. TL; DR Starting in 2016, Southern Ontario’s real-estate market caught fire, as population growth skyrocketed, but we saw only modest growth in new home construction, mostly in small-town Ontario. Then the pandemic happened, interest rates collapsed and white-collar savings exploded, causing money to be…7 min read
Apr 10The Federal Government’s Big Hairy Audacious Goal (BHAG) to Double the Number of New Homes Built.TL; DR The federal government has set a target to double the number of housing units built over the next decade — an increase from 1.9 to 3.8 million. This recognizes the scale of our supply shortages, however, a simple number of units target is far too coarse to be…5 min read
Mar 30How has the pandemic changed population dynamics — #1: Canada-wide viewAs always, here’s the TL;DR TL;DR: During the pandemic we have seen more deaths, fewer babies, and a drastic drop in international migration. Statistics Canada Table 17–10–0008–01 provides estimates on the components of population growth on an annual basis — how many babies were born, how many people immigrated to…5 min read
Mar 28President Truman, State of the Union Address, January 14, 1946 — Housing PortionThe more things change, the more they stay the same From President Harry S. Truman’s January 1946 State of the Union address. Early in the speech, the President addresses the economic outlook, which involves both inflation and housing speculation. (Sound familiar?) I. THE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Prophets of doom predicted that…6 min read
Mar 22When it comes to the census, who is counted and who isn’t matters.On a subject that will not die. Consider this a follow-up to the piece Debunking the “homes outpace households” argument. As always, here’s the TL;DR TL;DR: Despite media stories and discourse on Twitter, the number of new homes is not rising faster than the number of new households. The discrepancy…6 min read
Jan 30Ontarians on the Move, 2022 Edition. #4 -Housing completions did increase after the 2015 Ontario population boom, but mostly outside of Toronto.Fourth in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. TL;DR: Although housing completions did not keep up with population growth from 2015–19, they did increase. …4 min read
Jan 18Ontarians on the Move, 2022 Edition. #3 -Increased immigration targets played only a minor role in Ontario’s population growthThird in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. TL;DR: Ontario’s population grew rapidly between 2015–19. While ‘increased immigration targets’ are cited as the primary factor, they only contributed about 15–20% of Ontario’s increased population growth. I feel…3 min read
Jan 14Ontarians on the Move, 2022 Edition. #2 -Even in the pandemic, it’s still young families that are moving across OntarioSecond in (what I hope) will be a series on population growth, migration, and what’s going on with Ontario’s housing market. TL;DR: Over the past decade, migration within the province has been primarily caused by young families searching for available and attainable housing. …4 min read